Hey Hot Potatoes,

Welcome to the latest edition of the Hot Potato Newsletter! Bloody hell, Hot Potato isn’t the only hot thing right now, as I am writing this, it’s about 33 degrees outside full on heatwave! Let’s be honest in the UK we’re just not cut out for this, but let’s enjoy it while we can before it turns to grey drizzle soon. Walking around Kings Cross yesterday it was buzzing and hopefully hospitality got a strong boost. A quick shout out to anyone in hospitality working in these conditions, I take my hat off to you all!

This week we're diving into the latest headlines across UK hospitality, shining a spotlight on a bakery that built its business around a social mission, exploring why Padel is becoming one of the biggest opportunities in hospitality right now, and I've got the data on what the World Cup could mean for the sector this summer. Let's get into it.

In today’s email: The Bakery Built On Second Chances, Why Padel Is Your Next Big Opportunity & £898m On The Table This Summer

Read Time: Approx 3-4 mins

We take a look at some of the hottest headlines happening right now in UK Hospitality.

Sources: Propel Info, MCA Insight, Restaurant Online

🔥 TRADING MOMENTUM BUILDS: Young's reports drink sales up 5.3% over the last five weeks, with beer volumes growing 8% as the CEO declares "the resurgence of beer" is here - World Cup bookings are already 35% ahead of last year's Euros. PizzaExpress meanwhile reports "strong first quarter momentum" with UK like-for-like sales up 5%, while Tortilla posts an impressive 12% LFL rise in the 20 weeks to May, crediting product quality and a new three-year menu development plan.

🔥 THE WORLD IS COMING TO UK HOSPITALITY: International brands are circling. US Tex-Mex giant Chili's Grill & Bar - with 1,600+ global locations has confirmed it's targeting up to 100 UK sites with a first flagship within 12-18 months. Meanwhile, Spanish-based Greek frozen yogurt brand Myka has signed for its first UK store at St Christopher's Place.

🔥 EXPERIENTIAL HOSPITALITY ON THE RISE: Nightcap is converting its former Dirty Martini site in St Paul's into The Side Hustle - a new sports bar concept described as "sport, music, atmosphere and great hospitality in one space, done properly." The Oast House in Manchester unveils a major rebrand with a new rotisserie chicken menu and a seven-day live music programme after 7.3% like-for-like growth. And Toca Social, the interactive football bar, is set to launch in Paris this June for its first Continental European site.

🔥 OPENINGS & EXPANSIONS - FROM MAYFAIR TO MORDEN: Wetherspoon confirms a new 280-cover flagship, Piccadilly Hall, inside the London Trocadero on Shaftesbury Avenue. Farm Girl secures a 15-year Mayfair lease on South Molton Street with a £125k landlord contribution and plans a £775k crowdfund. Smashburger brand Smacks opens its first travel hub at Morden station in July (site 15 of a planned 40). And The Padel Club backed by Milner, Buttler and Vaughan secures Chester with nine more sites in the pipeline.

Most businesses have a great product or a great mission, very few have both.

The Dusty Knuckle is one of them.

In 2014, Max Tobias had seen enough. Tired of watching young people fall through the cracks with nowhere to go and no one to turn to, he left his career as a youth violence prevention worker and started making bread, with a mission baked into every loaf.

He co-founded it with his friend Becca and today it's one of the most compelling social enterprise stories in UK hospitality.

The numbers tell the story:
• A shipping container to London's (arguably!) best bakery in just over a decade
• 3 x sites and a large portfolio of wholesale customers like Ottolenghi
• Selling over 1 ton of artisan bread a day
• 85+ young people given paid, meaningful employment through the programme

Here's what makes them different:
🍞 The mission is the model - most hospitality businesses think of social impact as an afterthought, at Dusty Knuckle it's structural. The training programme is built for young offenders, early school leavers and the long-term unemployed. Max chose bread as dough demands care and attention. It requires no commitment to literacy or academia but rewards strength, grit and good hands.

🥪 Graft over growth - the pandemic pushed the Dusty Knuckle right to the wire. When their Dalston footfall disappeared overnight, their response wasn't to cut costs or pause the mission, they found a 1984 milk float, fixed it up and essentially opened a third site on wheels, chasing customers around north-east London neighbourhoods with sourdough and doorstep sandwiches.

🔥 Product as proof - none of the story matters if the bread isn't exceptional and it is. The Dusty Knuckle has built a loyal customer base through obsessive craft, everything still made by hand, every loaf still a statement. Their sandwiches have become viral and pizzas are second to none too.

Fair play to the team - they bet that doing the right thing and making the best product weren't mutually exclusive. Turns out they were right.

One of the things that I love about hospitality is how it touches so many different sectors and one in particular is growing fast - Padel.

This week, I read that The Padel Club, backed by Michael Vaughan, James Milner and Jos Buttler, just secured Chester. They have 9 more sites in the pipeline.

They're far from alone. Padium and Rocket Padel are building premium indoor destinations with coaching, retail and full F&B. Vida Del Padel has gone from one club to 20 scheduled openings in a single year. Padel Social Club has announced two new sites.

The LTA now reports 1,553 courts across 559 venues, up from just 69 in 2020. A new court is opening roughly every single day.

Padel is fundamentally a socialising sport. The operators winning here are building destinations where the sport gets you through the door but the food, drink and community keep you there. This also creates big opportunities for suppliers in hospitality and foodservice, where Padel operators will need support in this area!

Source: The Caterer

Is this the year it finally comes home? Absolutely buzzing for the start of the world cup and the footy brings with it a huge much needed boost for hospitality.

The data shows UK football fans are forecast to spend £898 million in hospitality venues during the 2026 World Cup this summer, almost double the £442m generated during the 2022 tournament, and 46% more than the 2024 Euros (£614m).

Around 12 million consumers are expected to visit a pub, bar or restaurant over the course of the tournament, with £536m forecast to be spent on drinks and a further £361m on food.

Let’s hope it comes home but either way great news for the sector!

That wraps this edition of Hot Potato. We've got a lot more coming - more brand spotlights, more trends worth watching and more spicy takes that'll hopefully get you thinking. If you found this useful, share it with someone in the industry who'd appreciate it.

Hit reply with any thoughts - I read everything and it genuinely shapes what comes next.

Bon appétit,

Max Shipman, Founder, Hot Potato

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